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Question: Sustainable Aviation Futures: Crises, Contested Realities and Prospects for Change

Answer: Crisis’ is a term often swiftly attached to industries, governments and indeed societies, only to be withdrawn at some later date as the expected threats fail to appear or are met with new policy instruments and adjustments. Such crises are, in fact, relatively easily constrained, capable of being offset by policy learning or changes to our standard ways of working. Yet, recourse to such crisis-narratives should not always be dismissed as ‘crying wolf’. The threats and dangers are often very material indeed, to the point where some cannot be simply warded off by innovative or ingenious strategies. Rather, they require the generation of alternative futures, which recast the existing regimes, systems, structures and practices through which an industry, government or society operates. Put alternatively, ‘crisis’ may well in certain conjunctures demand the radical transformation of how we view the world, putting into question our fundamental values and beliefs; and for this to happen, protagonists have arguably to recognise that they face a ‘crisis’ and that continuing as usual is no longer an option.

Whether the commercial aviation industry faces a crisis is a moot point, generating different judgements and controversies which in turn quickly trigger further rounds of questions and debates. Not least among such questions is that if aviation is in crisis, it is a crisis of what and for whom? For some commentators, and not just those advancing future imaginaries of mega-airport cities or aerotropoli (Kasarda & Lindsay, 2012), the notion of ‘crisis’ may be a strange, if not contentious, point of departure for any discussion of the future of aviation as air transport globally is arguably in good health. Since the end of the Second World War, demand for passenger and cargo flights has increased dramatically to the point where 2.8 billion passengers and 48 million tonnes of airfreight flew around the world in 2012 (Fig. 1 and ATAG, 2012). Currently, in the region of 1,700 commercial airlines (operating over 20,000 aircraft) fly 30 million commercial flights between 3,750 airports worldwide every year (Airlines for America, 2013; ATAG, 2012). However, the spatial distribution of these services is highly uneven with the majority of flights being concentrated at major cities in the economically developed world. Crucially, however, although certain air transport markets, including those in North America and parts of Western Europe, are believed to be close to saturation, others, particularly in the rapidly developing economies of Latin America and the Middle and Far East (including most notably Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, China, Indonesia and the Philippines), are rapidly expanding, leading to growing demand and a net increase in flights (Boeing, 2012). Given the growth potential of these markets, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has forecast an annual global passenger growth rate of 5.3 per cent from 2013 to 2016, by which time 3.6 billion passengers are expected to fly each year (IATA, 2012a).

(Source: , 02 Sep 2021)

Source Link: https://doi-org.onlinedatabase.librarynet.com.my/10.1108/S2044-9941(2013)0000004013